The Heisman Hopefuls Podcast
The Heisman Hopefuls Podcast, hosted by Heisman historian Chris Huston, features year round interviews with top Heisman contenders, insider stories from Heisman history, hard-hitting discussion of the latest college football news plus updates on the Heisman Trophy Trust’s charitable work. New episodes every Thursday. Follow @HeismanTrophy on all platforms and watch clips on YouTube and TikTok. Contact: pod@heisman.com
The Heisman Hopefuls Podcast
OSU QB Drew Mestemaker & Duke RB Nate Sheppard
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Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker joins the pod after leading his team to a huge upset of No. 6 Oregon. Find out how he went from a backup high school quarterback to walk on quarterback to one of the best players in college football. Next up is Duke running back Nate Sheppard, who leads the nation in rushing after two weeks. His versatility and toughness make him an intriguing player to watch as the season develops. We close out with the Director of Sports Analytics at Carnegie-Mellon University, Ron Yurko, who recently partnered with the Heisman to develop the Heisman Hopefuls platform.
The Heisman Hopefules Podcast streams every Thursday during the college football season and is hosted by Chris Huston. The pod is available on all streaming networks, including Spotify and Apple Music, and full videos of the show are available on YouTube, with clips on TikTok and Instagram.
Email us at pod@heisman.com for feedback and inquiries.
Welcome back to the Heisman Hopefuls podcast, where we are dedicated to highlighting the best players in the country, regardless of program, regardless of position. I'm your host, Chris Houston. Well, it was another great week of college football dominated by one central theme: resurrection. Teams that were once thought dead and buried came back to life before our eyes on Saturday. Two teams in particular personified what I'm talking about. First, there's Texas, supremely talented, but they were down by 20 to number one Ohio State at home heading into the fourth quarter. Arch Manning wasn't quite clicking. Their play was pretty sloppy. Things looked bleak. But an unlikely fourth quarter rally against the Buckeyes vaunted defense produced an even unlikelier 24-23 win for the Longhorns, and now they sit at number one. Then there's Oklahoma State under new coach Eric Morris, losers of twelve straight. The twelfth of those twelve came the previous weekend against Tulsa when the new era cowboys came out flatter than the Great Plains. Media that were pushing the OSU bandwagon in the preseason suddenly jumped off that bandwagon. I had a conversation with a friend of mine midweek, and I told him, you know, it would be the most college football-y thing that college football ever did if Oklahoma State managed to beat the Ducks. Which they did, of course, 39-31 behind a determined effort. This was an Oregon team that was one of the favorites to win the national title, which they still might, of course. So maybe this game told us more about the Cowboys than the Ducks. But above all, it reminded us that for all the money swirling around the sport, these are still just young guys playing a game. You never know what you're gonna get. Coming up on this week's show, we've got one of the heroes of the weekend, Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestimacher, who cranked out four hundred and twenty-six yards of total offense against the Ducks. Three years ago, he was a backup high school quarterback out of the Austin area with no scholarship offers. Today, highlights of his leaping score to beat Oregon are all over the internet. College football, man. After that, we'll talk to Duke running back Nate Shepherd, the nation's leading rusher after two games. We actually talked to him after his 35 carry, 227-yard effort against Tulane two weekends ago, but he had another big game against Illinois last Saturday and is looking more and more like one of the most complete backs in the country. We're gonna close things out with Ron Yurko, the director of the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Center, to discuss uh his partnership with Heisman and its Heisman Hopefuls platform. We're gonna geek on at some stats and numbers. So if you like that kind of thing, this one's for you. By the way, speaking of the Heisman Hopefuls platform, don't forget to cast your ballot in the official Heisman fan vote, which is now live at hopefuls.heisman.com. After two weeks of play, Malachi Tony of Miami leads the field. Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State is second, and Darien Mensa, also of Miami, rounds out the top three. Looks like Miami fans are making their voices heard, so don't forget to make yours heard as well.
SPEAKER_06Every program, every position, every player.
SPEAKER_01They are all Heisman hopefully. Just a tremendous uh effort on his part and his teams. Well, Drew Mestemaker of the Oklahoma State Cowboys, congratulations on the big win over Oregon. Welcome to the Heisman Hopefuls Podcast.
SPEAKER_07Thank you. Thank you for having me.
SPEAKER_01You know, I I think this game was really the epitome of what college football is all about. Last week, around this time, you guys are hanging your heads or having a hard time after uh losing a game to Tulsa. Didn't come out like you wanted, didn't start the season like you wanted, but then you regrouped, come back the next week and beat number six, Oregon. Take me on a journey through this week, and I would imagine there's a bit of roller coaster emotions going on, but like tell me what happened like after the Tulsa game, and kind of take me through it.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I think uh, you know, Coach Morris just being straight up with us, like saying we we fully got dominated by Tulsa. We didn't play our game, and that's what happens whenever you know we we don't play with confidence, we don't play fast, and um, you know, don't play our game. And so I think him being straight up with us was really a wake-up call. And um I mean we all knew we were better than that and knew what kind of team we really were. And so I think the focus this last week of this team and the intensity and practice really made the difference this week. And so I know Coach Morris is going to be on us to see that every week because we all knew like that was the exact opportunity we wanted after a after an embarrassing loss, honestly. Like we all knew we were better than that, and so we knew we had a chance to make it back with this game against Oregon.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and going up against Oregon, we talked about how talented they are. Uh you coming from North Texas, so many other guys come from North Texas and from all around the country. Uh playing together for only the second time, what worked for you against Oregon that didn't work against Tulsa? Like, what did you do differently, do you think?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, well, I think the O-line stepped up a lot. You know, they they had to deal with um, you know, getting told they weren't good enough good enough and you know they were the reason we lost, which is is not true, but they they had to you know sit there and hear that all week and then to come back and bounce back like they did and allow zero sacks, and we rushed for like 250-something yards. It was it was just awesome to see them come back, and I really do think the running game helped establish, you know, kind of slow their D-line down because they they have a really great D-line over there, and then uh allow us to take shots off of that and push the ball downfield.
SPEAKER_01What about yourself? You personally, coming off that Tulsa game, what were you telling yourself after that game? Did you have doubts about uh coming to this next level and thinking maybe it wasn't working out, or did you just feel like it was a short hiccup and that you'd be able to write things pretty quickly?
SPEAKER_07Um, you know, there's always like small doubts, but I I I really never like lost confidence. And I knew this game, um, I just had to go out there and let it rip. I uh, you know, knew I couldn't second guess myself because that's when you know if you if you pump something and it it the window closes quick against these guys, so I just knew I had to let it rip and and go out there and give him my all.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and you really did that the first play of the game for Oklahoma State, uh, that 75-yard run. Uh describe to me what happened on that run. It looked like a read option. What was going through your head as you as you pulled that off?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, it was our uh little like outside zone. We were trying to run some outside zone against those guys and just get those D-linemen running running sideways, and uh that uh that DN crashed down really hard, and so I pulled it out the back end, and it was just me and the safety, and his eyes were still kind of in the backfield. So I uh hit a crease and was peeking up at the at the jumbotron, trying to see if anyone was catching up to me, and uh I saw someone catching up to me pretty quick, so I I knew I had to stick the ball out and dive. And I guess I stepped out of like the two or something, but I think that set the tone for the game pretty well.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, that guy who chased you down was at number nine, Devin Jackson. He later on he later on uh got a tip ball and took it back 96 yards, so he was kind of your your nemesis the whole time. Yeah, he was. Yeah. Oregon didn't watch that that Texas State Bowl game uh when you were a freshman, that seven, because you had a 70-yard run in that game. Yeah. It didn't seem like the safety, I mean, they like they didn't even uh think that you were a running threat in uh early on.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I I guess so. I think um, you know, I'm not like a I wouldn't call myself like a running quarterback, but you know, if you're gonna leave lanes open for me, I can I can use my legs and get what's there. And um, you know, I'm I'm definitely still an athlete back there.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Well, speaking of athlete, I want to talk to you about what I think is the play of the year in college football until another better play comes along. Uh your uh leaping uh touchdown. There's got to be some cool name that that somebody comes up for it at some point. But this was the deciding score against Oregon. You guys are down 3130, uh getting down uh to the nitty-gritty. Uh Owen, you want to run that tape? And Drew, you want to look at this this film and tell me what is happening on this play.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, so uh I dropped back and you're hurting there. Yeah, yeah, I got the wind knocked on me pretty bad there, but you know, my I drop back and that uh that tackle or not the tackle, the DM kind of came upfield pretty quick on our tackle, and so I slid underneath them and kind of slid out to the side, and everyone was standing in the end zone, and I knew it was third down, so I I just kind of took off and um was getting close, and the same guy that I jumped over went low on me earlier in the game. So I uh kind of just felt like I was getting close enough to jump in, and I jumped. And um, I mean I've I've never hurdled someone in my life, so I was kind of just like a spur-of-the-moment thing, and I jumped and saw I was getting over the goal line, then got hit and landed on my back and got the wind knocked out of me, but it was all worth it for sure.
SPEAKER_01You know, the thing is you you could say a hurdle, but but you you jumped with both feet, which which I thought was pretty pretty cool. Um it reminds me like you know, like in dreams where you're flying and floating, and it just looked like you just kept going up and up for a while.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, yeah, I guess that was the adrenaline carrying me on that one.
SPEAKER_01And then it's kind of amazing that you know, in that split second, that millisecond, you remembered that that player had gone for your feet before.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, it was like I don't know what it was, I don't know if it was like the number just flashed in my head or something, because I like it was uh it might have been earlier that drive, honestly. He went low on me on a little QB draw and caught me on the calf and took me down. So it was just like a spur-of-the-moment thing. I remembered and I was like, I'm going for it.
SPEAKER_01That is some elite processing right there, my friend. Okay, let's go back to the beginning. Vandergrift high school in Austin. You weren't even the starter at high school. I guess you started back when you were a freshman, but you never started on varsity, you were backup because uh some uh some other highly talented quarterback uh transferred into your your school. Um how did you end up developing as a quarterback? Or I should say, what made you want to still be a quarterback even though you weren't getting a chance to play quarterback?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I just had had always you know had the dream of being a college quarterback and an NFL quarterback, and um I knew just because I was you know not getting the reps and getting told no, I knew I couldn't let that you know derail my my dream. And so I always, you know, every practice rep I got, I treated it like a game because at the end of the day I was the backup quarterback, so I knew I was one play away from from having to go in the game, and I knew whenever my opportunity came, I had to make the most of it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and you got on the field anyway. You were you uh learned how to punt, you became a pretty good punter, you became a free safety. I saw some of your highlights. You were you were laying some some hits back there as a safety. Uh very physical. In fact, you were physical when you were in as a quarterback, you I thought you were pretty physical too, like attacking uh defenders. Um so it sounded like you pretty much like had reckless abandon a bit because you were you had nothing to lose, right?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I mean I was in high school, I was trying, trying to do anything to get on the field. I just at the end of the day, I love football, and so I I just wanted to be out there with my boys and um you know get on the field anyway I could.
SPEAKER_01Would you be like the emergency fourth string punter right now if you if if push came to shove?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, maybe. I haven't I don't know if I've punted since since high school, but you know, I could probably figure it out if I had to.
SPEAKER_01Alright, well, walk me through uh the journey from Vandergrift uh over to uh North Texas because you didn't start, you didn't have much film, so you didn't get really uh any scholarship offers. You thought about Sam Houston State, and then uh there was an opening with North Texas. Tell me about that story and how you ended up there.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, so after my senior season, I was kind of just training on my own, just trying to get back into quarterback shape and back throwing again, and um I got an Instagram DM from a quarterback coach that was coming to train in Austin, and so I showed up and he knew Jeff Christensen, who knows Coach Morris, and so I got connected with Jeff Christensen, went through with him, and he was like telling Coach Morris he was like, This kid's the real deal, like you're gonna take a chance on him. And uh Coach Morris is like, all right, send me his film, and Jeff's like, that's the thing, he doesn't have any film, and so um, you know, it took some convincing for Coach Morris, but at the end of the day, he gave me a walk-on spot, and um, you know, I I knew with the way he calls the offense and the quarterbacks he's had, I I knew I had to go there.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. In your mind at that time as a quarterback, what were some of the things you could do that you were like, oh man, I'm good at this? Like I'm as good as these other guys, that you felt a kind of a quiet confidence in.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I always felt like I was a good thrower of the football. I feel like um I've I've had some great quarterback trainers growing up that have taught me how to throw the football. And um, I also felt like I was an athlete. Like I I've always felt like I can move around and and make plays off schedule, and so um, you know, I I kind of always felt like I could do it. I just needed an opportunity to show it.
SPEAKER_01So you get to North Texas, you're a walk-on, I think you're like fifth string at the time. Life is a walk-on, you're coming in, you're not getting a whole lot of quality reps. Where where are you getting a chance to show what you can do? And uh was it like at certain stations, was it at in Scout Team?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, so I actually it was it was kind of like routes on air, I guess. Whenever I'd I'd get my chance to, you know, you just kind of got to have a lot of arms for that, for that drill. And so luckily I got to do that drill and and uh felt like I was making the most of it, and then I'd get sprinkled in some seven-on-seven reps and have to make the most on that, and then um there was one day that like one of our quarterbacks was sick, so I got a chance in seven on seven then, and so it was just kind of like anytime I got my chance, I knew I had to make the most of it.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and then you also had to learn, I imagine, a new system. Did you guys or did you guys run the air raid vendor grift, or or was was that a whole new thing you had to learn?
SPEAKER_07No, it was a whole new thing I had to learn. I was um would they'd send out the practice script the night before, and so I'd drop every play on that practice script on my own and in a in my little notebook and just try to ingrain it in my brain as fast as I could.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and then it was it during camp that you started moving up the death chart or was it during the season itself?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, it was during camp. I think um we probably had like 15 camp practices, so by like camp ten probably, I'd moved up to be like the three basically, the like two A, two B almost. And so um I was getting two reps probably the last like five practices, and um then by the time the season started, I was we were still like co-backups basically, and um and then we played Texas Tech and we're getting blown out pretty bad, and they threw me in there, so I uh they never really told me I was the backup, but from that point on I kind of felt like I was the backup.
SPEAKER_01It must have felt pretty good or pretty exciting to kind of feel that confidence that they had in you at right?
SPEAKER_07100%. It was awesome to kind of finally feel like a coach was was believing in me and and thought I could do it.
SPEAKER_01Is there for a walk-on who gets a chance to show what they can do, is there sometimes the potential for like imposter syndrome where we're like, wow, I'm doing things, I can't believe that this is happening to me, kind of thing.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, a little bit. I feel like you gotta, you know, stay grounded and and stay committed to the process that got you there. I think um that was my biggest thing is I just kind of stuck with everything that was working. I you know, studying the plays, lifting heavy in the weight room, running fast outside, you know, all that stuff was working for me, so I was just trying to stick with it.
SPEAKER_01And then you go, you start the bowl game uh against Texas State. Uh first start, right? Yeah. And we're about to see all the uh the confidence they had in you. We're about to see what it was based on, right? So you come in, you go 26 of 41 for 393 yards, two touchdowns, you had uh 55 yards net, but you had that 70-yard touchdown run. You must have felt like, hey, it's this is this is the moment where you've arrived, you really know that you can play this game, right? At this level.
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I felt like that was a defining moment for me for sure. And um, you know, honestly, it was it was proof to me that like kind of proving myself right almost. Like I always kind of had that confidence that I could do it, but I never really knew if I actually could do it. And so having that game kind of proved to me that all right, I'm I'm doing the right things here, and I just gotta keep doing what I'm doing.
SPEAKER_01And then you must have had tremendous momentum going into the next year when you led the nation with 4,379 passing yards, 34 touchdowns, nine interceptions, just a red shirt freshman. Going from that last bowl game to into the into the summer workouts and spring football, did you have a different spring in your step, sort of have your head up a little bit more, kind of feeling that this was your now your position to take?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I feel like after after I got that first taste of like starting my first game and like being in a in a real college game, I I knew I couldn't give that up. And so um I was actually in a quarterback competition until like right before week one. And so I was really doing everything I could to win that quarterback battle and and set myself up for a great season.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, which you had a great season. You won the Burlsworth Trophy, which goes to the nation's top walk-on. Incidentally, another uh quarterback who was a Austin area uh high school quarterback who was a walk-on uh also won it, Baker Mayfield, and he transferred to Oklahoma, you transferred to Oklahoma State. Uh obviously you're now on scholarship, but but do you have a lot of a lot more respect for what walk-ons go through, and do you think it helps you relate to more people on the team?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, a hundred percent. I think um, you know, some guys that are you know ranked their whole life and and kind of big names, it kind of you know makes them look as they aren't like you know really part of the team, and like I mean not like that, but like it kind of blows up their name more than the rest of the team. And I think, you know, being on a team with guys that you know, you got the walk-ons that are that are just there for scout team, or you got the guys that'll only play ten plays and it's on special teams, and you know, to kind of like I was in that position uh uh like two years ago, and so uh it really makes me appreciate just all the guys on the team and and how hard everyone works.
SPEAKER_01You know, if there's a kid right now sitting next to you who is uh like uh fourth on their high school depth chart, what would you what would you tell them?
SPEAKER_07I'd say just keep your nose down and keep working. Um you know the thing that got me through it was was just looking for that opportunity, looking for anything I could do to to make sure when I got that opportunity I'd make the most of it.
SPEAKER_01Well, you made the most of it against Oregon. Uh coming out of that uh Tulsa game going into Oregon. What was the lesson you guys learned from just the complete change from one week to the next?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I think the lesson we learned was just to play our game. We we can't get caught up in the in the X's and O's of it, and at the end of the day, we just gotta go play our game and play it fast. We can't second guess ourselves, we can't, you know, get get too caught up in analyzing what the defense is doing or stuff like that. At the end of the day, we just gotta go do what we do and and do it to the best of our ability.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, and and what are some of the things you personally as a quarterback want to work on uh to to develop your game?
SPEAKER_07Yeah, I think, you know, first game against Tulsa, the two picks, I'll I'll a hundred percent put that on me. These last two games kind of sucks because it's like batted balls by the D line, but I I gotta keep the turnovers to a minimum. I think um, you know, giving the ball away, especially down there in the red zone against a good team like Oregon, uh the I mean stuff like that's what gets you beat. So I I want to limit the turnovers, but I feel like just just sticking to the process and preparing the way I'm preparing is is gonna gonna be good going forward.
SPEAKER_01Alright, let's do a few rapid fire questions and I'll get you out of here. Okay, what's the first thing you do when you wake up?
SPEAKER_02Um make my bed.
SPEAKER_00Who's the funniest guy on the team? Harrison Dempsey. Who would you least want to fight? Um probably Jaleel Johnson.
SPEAKER_01Best defensive player you faced.
SPEAKER_07Um probably this corner from Oregon. Finney, number four, he was pretty good.
SPEAKER_01Best receiver you've thrown to.
SPEAKER_07Best receiver? All the guys on the team.
SPEAKER_01Quarterback you watched growing up.
SPEAKER_07Aaron Rodgers.
SPEAKER_00Uh best food in Austin.
SPEAKER_07Oh. Uh the melting pot.
SPEAKER_00Best food in Stillwater.
SPEAKER_07Miso.
SPEAKER_00What's your order at Whataburger?
SPEAKER_07Honey barbecue chicken strip sandwich with some large fries.
SPEAKER_01Dream job of football didn't exist.
SPEAKER_07Oh gosh. Um. I don't know, probably something maybe a golf golfer.
SPEAKER_01What's the one thing people will be surprised to know about you?
SPEAKER_07Uh like playing video games.
SPEAKER_01Well, that's not that surprising, is it?
SPEAKER_07I mean, I don't know. I feel like I'm pretty normal.
SPEAKER_01Fair enough. Well, uh, Drew Mestermaker, really appreciate you taking the time and a busy week to come on the Heisman Hopefuls podcast. Congratulations again on a tremendous victory, one of the great uh upset wins of this century, uh, one of the great performances so far of the year. And again, I think the player of the year so far in college football. Uh, good luck to you against Murray State, and good luck the rest of the year.
SPEAKER_07Yes, sir. Thank y'all for having me.
SPEAKER_01All right, our next guest is Nate Shepherd of Duke, who's currently the nation's leading rusher through two weeks. We talked to him last week on the heels of his 227-yard, 35-carry performance against Tulane. He did uh follow that up with another 147 yards against Illinois. So he is just on fire right now. One of the most complete backs in the country, Nate Shepard. Welcome to the Heisman Hopefuls podcast.
SPEAKER_02Hello, how are you doing?
SPEAKER_0135 carries, 227 yards, three touchdowns against Tulane, another three catches for 19 yards, 246 total yards. I mean, were you able to walk after that game?
SPEAKER_03I was, I was. Uh definitely was sore, but I was good to go.
SPEAKER_01Did you have an inkling before the game that you might have 35 carries in this game?
SPEAKER_03Oh, definitely didn't think it would be 35. I knew it was gonna be a lot, you know, just with how we were trying to get adjusted and what we're trying to uh our offense is trying to be this year, but 35, uh, I didn't think it was gonna be that many.
SPEAKER_01You know, there was something that happened before the game I thought was pretty funny. I guess one of the two lane linebackers said that if they held you under 200 yards in the game, that they would win, which seems like a weird thing to say.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, no, we definitely uh we said the same thing. You know, 200 is uh that was gonna be a career high regardless. So I was like, well, you know, if y'all want to hold me to 199, you know, I'm not gonna complain. But definitely took that and uh took it under the chin and stuff like that and went out there and played.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. You hadn't carried the ball, I think, more than I think 22 or 23 times in college yet. Was there a point in the game where where you started to feel the fatigue kick in a little bit and you had to, you know, dig down deep to keep going?
SPEAKER_03Um I I think I was really good. You know, I think um obviously our off-season condition and everything like that prepared me to go in there and, you know, carry the ball as many times as I had to. Obviously, there were some plays, you know, after the long runs, you know, might be a little winded, take a couple plays off and then get back in there.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, there's an old uh coach once said about a uh a running back carrying the ball 40 times in a game. The media asked him, like, you know, is it good that he's carrying the ball that much? And he said it's not very heavy, the ball. So but there's one play particular uh in this game that I wanted to uh to talk about, uh, which was I thought uh incredibly impressive. It wasn't a run per se, but you catch a pass out there, go ahead and run it, Owen.
SPEAKER_05Shepard bloody.
SPEAKER_01So uh blood. I mean, uh blood coming out of your nose. What goes through your head uh uh when you when you get up from a play and you feel blood coming down coming down your face?
SPEAKER_03No, it was actually crazy because I don't think I had a nose weed since I was like five or six years old. So I was like, the fact that they were able to get that done, I was that was kind of crazy. And then, you know, I felt it, I was like, I think I put my glove up and I was like, oh, I'm actually bleeding, try to get the rest often just so we can get a quick uh injury timeout to stop the clock.
SPEAKER_01So yeah, uh when the play's actually happening, obviously I I imagine you don't remember anything I would imagine in the play itself, but but what's the experience like during the play when you're getting hit five, six, seven times uh and somehow your nose gets bloodied?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, no, I remember um you know breaking that first tackle, and then it's just trying to find a lane to the end zone, and you know, I just kept kind of bobbing and weaving through the defenders and stuff like that. And then I think it was kind of that last hit that I think my face mask hit my nose or something like that, and then my nose started bleeding.
SPEAKER_01One more thing I wanted to bring up. Uh your offensive line of that game, especially 63 and 77, the right guard and right tackle, pretty amazing uh plays, uh players in that game. Uh seemed like they were just opening huge holes for you uh play after play. Uh was the offensive line also motivated by what the Tulane guy said as well.
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I think everybody kind of was, you know, just from the fact that, you know, I was the only one they mentioned. That was definitely motivating to our wide receivers, our tight ends, and our quarterback and stuff like that. And then the O line obviously is gonna have my back and I'm gonna have theirs. So, you know, they're great, a great bunch of guys.
SPEAKER_01So Yeah. I want to go back to beginning your career and the the trajectory that you're on. Uh you're up at Mandeville, Louisiana, you're uh above Lake Pontcha train up there, uh, and you get hurt your seventh game, uh senior year, right? Fibula, you break your fibula. And maybe perhaps that's something that uh uh kind of affects how you're perceived coming out of high school. Maybe there's not as much attention as you might have gotten had you finished out the year. Um but that injury, uh how long did it take for that injury to really recover to where you felt like you could cut on on that right leg and where you could do everything you used to do?
SPEAKER_03Um yeah, I was definitely good by spring ball. Um so I think by the end of February, I was back in Matt Jerrill's back cutting back, doing everything like that.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Going back to your first game, college football against Elon, uh I thought it was interesting. Your your first touch was a screen pass for 20. Your second touch was a two-yard rush, and then your and then you had a block punt in the game, which is what a first game to come out and and uh do a little bit of everything. And did you want to go out in special teams, just get on the field as much as possible at that point, uh just trying to do anything you could for the team?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, definitely. You know, I had the mindset coming in here that, you know, I was probably obviously wasn't gonna get the starting job just because of the experience we had in the room off right right off the bat. So, you know, I was gonna have to go work for it. And if it was playing special teams, you know, whatever I could do to be out there on the field, I was gonna do.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I mean, the versatility that you show is pretty incredible. You got power, you got hands, you got speed, vision, durability, toughness. Uh again, your first touchdown was uh a screen pass, I believe, uh against Tulane. Um and then your first start against Syracuse, 49-yard touchdown uh uh was your first rushing touchdown. And then, but it's your second touchdown that I want to talk about as well, the one where you bowled over the safety. And it reminded me, uh, let's let's look at that play real quick.
SPEAKER_00Owen, you want to cue that up? So you just bowl that guy over, go right in the end zone.
SPEAKER_01And it reminded me a lot of a play by a past Heisman trophy winner who you may or may not recognize. Now, Herschel was like 6'2, 6'1, 220, and you're 5'10, 200. I feel like you do one of these, like uh looking back at all the all the games, I feel like you do like one of these the game. You're like just knocking people over. How do you how'd you get so tough? I mean, how how do you pack this kind of wall up uh in that frame?
SPEAKER_03Um, yeah, I think a lot of my toughness is from playing with my brother and his friends when growing up, you know, he's four and a half years older than me, so I was always out there on the field with them. And then obviously um the strength and stuff, um, first is genetics, and then second is Coach Feely, you know, what the strength and conditioning program we have, I think can go head to head with anybody's in the country, and that's really where it comes from.
SPEAKER_01Was it that Syracuse game where you really felt like uh you could play really well at this level, or did it happen before that?
SPEAKER_03Um, I think it was really the two-lane game, you know. I think I was five for 75, and then obviously the one touchdown that game, and you know, I was breaking tackles, I was doing things, and I was like, okay, you know, I think I'm I'm real comfortable here and I deserve to be here and stuff like that.
SPEAKER_01Let's go back to talking about your brother, Will. Uh, what are some of the things that you guys used to do as kids to to compete and to get better at uh in in various competitions?
SPEAKER_03Um yeah, I remember, and obviously I hear the stories from my dad and stuff, you know, going out there and uh just doing ladder drills and stuff in the yard and going out there playing tackle the man with the football. And um, we would play Devin Hester, which I don't know if you're familiar with the game, you know, it's one person returning and everybody else trying to tackle you before you get to the uh end zone and stuff like that. So I just remember those games.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Do you think he's a big factor in getting you started in football as far as like being motivated, or was it a whole family affair?
SPEAKER_03Um, I think it was between him and my dad, you know. Obviously, my dad played college football, and then, you know, seeing Will out there and stuff like that, I think that's kind of where it stemmed from.
SPEAKER_01Yeah. Who who do you take more after athletically? Your your dad or your mom?
SPEAKER_03I gotta say my mom here, just so she know so she don't get mad. But no, they're both very athletic.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, but it's interesting to me that, okay, so your dad was a defensive back, your mom played volleyball, your brother's receiver, and you're a running back. You're you're uh in the one position that's incredibly violent, right? And you're constantly taking hits, you're constantly delivering hits. Were you always tough? Did you always feel like you could always handle everything? What was your motivation to become this uh this tough running back?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I think I've always just been tough. You know, obviously, like I said, just growing up with those older uh playing with the older kids and stuff like that, you know, taking those harder hits when I was younger. And then also, you know, taking after my dad. My dad was actually a running back before he switched to defensive back in college. So, you know, I was always hearing the stories about him, and you know, he kind of was the first one to really show me the running back position.
SPEAKER_01Who was the the one running back that you modeled your game after?
SPEAKER_03Um I like Alvin Kamara. Um I try I think coming out of high school is the one I try to compare myself to him the most and watch obviously, you know, the Saints, local guy and stuff like that. But then, you know, his contact balance, his catching out the backfield and stuff like that is what I try to model after.
SPEAKER_01You also ran track, uh played basketball, uh, you were a long jumper, uh high hurdle, uh intermediate hurdles. Uh do you think you could have done one of those events had you not done football?
SPEAKER_03Um, nah, I really don't. I don't think I ever got my hurdle for him there. Um, you know, it takes a lot of skill to do that that stuff.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, yeah. Okay. If you had one carry, one yard to gain, who's your lead blocker?
SPEAKER_00Anyone in football history?
SPEAKER_03Um I'm gonna say Jerry Hazley, uh, our tight end here. I mean, I don't think I've ran behind a better lead blocker than him, to be honest.
SPEAKER_01Uh what's harder to learn picking up a blitz or reading a linebacker's eyes in space?
SPEAKER_03Uh picking up a blitz, just know really knowing where the blitz is coming from first is probably the hardest part.
SPEAKER_00Uh what's one word that your offensive line would use to describe you? Um hurdles or the 40-yard dash, which one tells you more about being a running back? Hurdles. What's one skill you would take from Will's game and add to yours?
SPEAKER_02Jump ball ability.
SPEAKER_00Uh for a perfect game for you, how many carries would it be perfect? Like what where what's like your sweet spot for carries?
SPEAKER_0222 to 23.
SPEAKER_01Sweet spot. Okay, say it's fourth and one. Uh do you want the ball or are is the sneak the right call? No, I want the ball.
SPEAKER_02Seven point eight. Uh Mandeville seafood, anything from there?
SPEAKER_00Favorite Duke basketball player.
SPEAKER_02Uh currently let's go Cooper Flag.
SPEAKER_01All right. Uh by the way, uh, what's it like being a football player at Duke? Is it historically a basketball school and uh do you feel like the football program is gaining uh popularity uh in the Duke community?
SPEAKER_03Yeah, I definitely do. I mean, obviously we're a smaller school and stuff like that, so but I mean you can see in our student section. I mean, our students come out and show a lot of support to us, so I think that's that it's definitely becoming more of a both type of school.
SPEAKER_01What are you studying, uh, Duke?
SPEAKER_03Uh psychology.
SPEAKER_01Is that something where you uh potentially after your football career is over, that you would want to get into somewhere in that field, or do you just feel that's a good all-around subject to to apply to life? No, I just like uh the all-around ability of it. All right. Well, uh Nate Shepard, thanks for coming on the Heisman Hopefuls podcast. Appreciate you taking the time. Uh good luck uh next Saturday and good luck the rest of the year. Thank you for having me. Past September 9th, the Heisman Trophy launched its Heisman Hopefuls platform. One of the key elements of that platform was bringing an analytics-driven feature to uh analyzing and and and discussing and uh promoting the Heisman fan vote. And with us to talk about that today on the Heisman Hopefuls podcast is Ron Yurko, who is the director of the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Center. Ron, welcome to the show.
SPEAKER_04Thanks for having me, Chris. I've been listening to this, and uh obviously you've had great athletes on. So uh excited to join the conversation around the uh the Heisman Hopefuls platform uh this season.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, well, you're an athlete of a different type, I guess. Uh you're like an academic athlete, uh math, so to speak. Um let's talk about this uh this platform, what you've contributed to it. Uh Heisman has uh agreement with you to work with you on this. And uh first, I guess let's give some background on uh where you come from uh in the world of of analytics and sports and how you got to where you are. Why would they come to you to partner with you on this?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, so background. I am a Western PA native. Obviously, I got the terrible town behind me. Uh, I was actually just at the Steeler game yesterday, the the opening day of the NFL season. Uh so born and raised in Western PA, which means I, you know, I'm born and raised in a football fandom, right? Western PA is probably you know, it's up there, maybe it's second to Texas, I would say, on you know, passion for football, whether it's high school, college level. My dad went to Penn State, so I was indoctrinated at youth to watch Penn State football my whole life. Uh, and so you know, I grew up a sports fan. Uh, I was part of the generation that read Moneyball. Uh, the movie came out when I was graduating high school, and that that sparked an interest in me of look, I'm good at math, I like numbers, and uh I was I played a lot of fantasy football as well. I was, you know, always interested in the statistics behind players. And that sports actually led me to this path of studying statistics. I I entered, I went to CMU as an undergrad, study statistics. I ended up doing uh an internship with the Pittsburgh Pirates, uh, where I was involved in uh really what was at the time like creating data. I would have to manually chart on the video feed where's every player at on the field at different moments, and that was used by the pirates to figure out how to shift players uh for their optimal positioning. And then I ended up getting into more research path, and I was part of this group along with uh Sam Ventura, who is now uh VP hockey strategy and research for the Buffalo Sabres, and uh a fellow student, uh Max Korowitz, who had a career working with the uh Atlanta Hawks in the NBA and now is a GM of a team in Italy, uh an Italian basketball league. Uh, we had this project called NFL Scraper, where what we did was we accessed uh public NFL play-by-play data, and we created these models for what were expected points and win probability. Uh so literally at every play in moments of time, how likely is a team to win the game? And or how many points is a team expected to score? And this was really a bedrock of uh modern football analytics. We built off of work of a number of individuals over the years. Uh, Brian Burke is someone that had EDSPN, uh, where we what we really did was scale this in a way to make it publicly available for folks. And that was that was my first real sort of famous contribution in sports analytics uh when I was a PhD student doing this, that it got us attention to be constantly cited in things like the athletic and at the time 538 and a number of different data-focused outlets. Uh, and since then, uh I continued on working in sports analytics research, especially with uh rich player tracking data. We're in this age of sports where there's data points being generated fractions of a second all the time throughout every game. Uh in the NFL, for instance, all NFL players are wearing chips in their shoulder pads that literally tell us every tenth of a second where are they at, how fast are they moving, the direction they're moving. And where we conduct research with that data. We figure out based on all this information, what can we learn about the decision making of a quarterback or the pass rush ability of an edge rusher, even if they're not recording a sack, where they were they inflicting some pressure on the QB? You know, all this new data, we're trying to figure out what it can tell us about performance and better understanding of players. And uh so we've had this reputation over my career being an academ uh PhD student and then joining CMU as a faculty member of a lot of innovation in football. And part of it is just the timing and also my personal interest of being a football fan. The uh and you know, football itself is this incredibly complex sport. You have 22 players on the field and you're trying to figure out who deserves credit for what. It's very different. A sport like baseball, for instance, it's sort of ideal. Yeah, well, yeah, a little basketball itself, you know, it and a sport like soccer and you know, hockey, right? There's players interacting in all sorts of ways. The uh but the thing about like baseball, for example, right, is it's just a start-stop, batter pitcher matchup. I can tell you if I take a third baseman on one team and I put them on another team uh in the Major League Baseball, you have a pretty good sense of how they're going to do. You take a wide receiver on a football team and place them on a different football team with a different quarterback, a different offensive coordinator, a different offensive line, facing different opposing defenses. Their performance can vary greatly. It's a very complex sport, players interacting in all these different ways. And you know, from the viewpoint to bring this back to what Heisman is trying to do, right? The Heisman Hopefuls platform is this amazing concept of really trying to highlight every single position in football, right? Because one of the difficulties in football with statistics, with analytics, is the things that have been recorded have been things about passing, all right, or who's directly been holding the ball, carrying the ball. So we have passing metric, we have rushing metrics, we have receiving metrics. We don't have good statistics on the shutdown corner who never gets an interception because the opposing QB is too afraid to throw the ball his way, right? That's not in a box score summary stat. So it's it's an amazing challenge to figure out how can we convey to the fan out there that this offensive lineman, uh, even though he doesn't have very good statistics that you know, the like the passing stats, the rushing stats, you should actually pay attention to that offensive lineman. That offensive lineman should be in your Heisman hopeful radar. And so the Heisman organization, right, they obviously they heard. About our reputation, our Carnegie Mellon, the work we were doing in football, and reached out about this opportunity and think about this amazing initiative that could really highlight every player in college football, right? Regardless of the program, regardless of the position they're playing. And we're just getting started on that front. When fans go to the Heisman Hopeful website, they'll see things like the EA sports rating. And the EA rating is this is a way of trying to aggregate all sorts of information from folks and whether it's scouting and all fields.
SPEAKER_01No, is that your rate? Do you come up with that EA rating?
SPEAKER_04No, so that's that's coming from EA Sports, right? So the popular video game, right? What they're doing is they have a whole group of folks that are you know, there's a combination of subjective evaluation of players and their skill sets and combining what's going on, field performance. And the the I the whole idea here was we want to get we want to get some measures and numbers for every single player. And that's just one data point, right? And we're gonna be building over these years ahead more and more information to be into this website, into this platform for folks to see to get more data about all these different positions.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, I'm really curious how you know, because uh I for years I've always talked about the the kind of realities of the Heisman race back in my my media days, and people would always ask me about players who had a chance, and I would always say that that until they come up with uh good metrics for offensive linemen, for linebackers, for defensive linemen, because there are some some some stats there, but like in the case of the offensive linemen, uh the grading numbers by the teams are kept secret, right? They're not they're not released to the public. Um and I know there's some places like uh Pro Football Focus that that uh you know grade out uh the players, the linemen, for example, I don't think they are necessarily always uh on the like I think they're maybe give you a general feel for something, but uh because you don't know, for example, if a left guard what his assignment was on a given play, uh there's sort of an assumption there or uh that has to be made and and uh in your own grade, right? But isn't that kind of one of the difficulties in trying to determine uh say for off the lineman a proper metric when you don't know uh what that lineman's responsibility is within scheme?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, and then this is you know, this is the biggest chat, one of the biggest challenges in football, right? Is we don't know the play call. And we observe when players do something, uh they could be they could be messing up, right? We don't know who really is at fault for you know potentially an interception, right? And so that that makes it a massive challenge from this viewpoint of just using an outsider's rating of an individual player, potentially, right? The uh there's limitations to that. And so what we have to do is try to break it down more into like more simple units or simple measurable quantities. So, for instance, the uh what we've done at the NFL level with the tracking data they have is given how a pass rusher, how fast they're moving, and the the distance that they're shortening between themselves and the quarterback, we can get this measure called strain to tell us well, how much how much pressure is a quarterback facing from this defender because of the speed and the distance that they're closing in on them, right? And that's a quantity that you know for something like a pass rusher, maybe it's a little bit easier to find like, hey, what there should what they should be doing. They're trying to get to the QB, right? But it's still even though it's not a noisy outcome, even if they don't get a sack, right? They could still, if they had this high value, that's still a signal of them doing something correctly in their job. And now scaling this out across all the different positions is challenging, right? And what folks will try to do is, and this motivates why we need this additional layer of data that's being generated, whether it's like from chips or processes we take of converting broadcast footage into tracking data, right? Via technology we have now, we can get from just broadcast footage, where's everybody at on the field, and seeing, for instance, uh an offensive lineman, are they preventing a defender from getting around them within, say, the first two or three seconds of the play?
SPEAKER_00Right?
SPEAKER_04If they're preventing the defender from getting around them within that start of the play, you know, they're giving the time for the quarterback to execute what was the play call, right? Versus if the quarterback gets sacked and it's after whatever number of seconds, right? The play has been extended for whatever reason, and the quarterback still gets sacked, say five seconds into the play, right? Yeah, maybe you could do a little better job of saying, well, that's more on the quarterback's fault than say the offensive lineman fault. The offensive linemen, they gave them the time, they won the first three seconds of this trench battle, right? And the quarterback had the window of time to make the decision, right? And so there's things like that. And you know, this is one of the fun things of being like a researcher in this space, is there's so many questions we still have to try to answer with the with the data that's coming in in football. And one of even the next layers of this, and we see this type of data and Major League Baseball in the NBA, is it's not just dots on a on a picture saying like, oh, how fast they're moving. You'll see this like on the Next Gen Stats broadcast. If you watch NFL football on Sundays, you'll see like, oh, recreation of the plays via these dots. We now actually have data that's telling us the full skeletal representation of an athlete. And so what I mean by that is we'll know the quarterback's elbow and like the angle of their release as they're throwing the ball. Right? That data is being generated from high-speed cameras. And more of that information, you know, if we know something about like the footwork of receivers and how how the hips are turning on a corner, right? When that when are they revealing to the QB, you know, what they're biting on in the play, right? In coverage, you know, that's gonna give us more insight into what's going on with players. And the uh I'm I'm excited to see like what we can develop from new types of data that we can bring in uh and and showcase for for college football fans. Because again, we're just getting started on this, the uh and we have uh so much more to bring into this front that uh that I'm very excited about.
SPEAKER_01Yeah, it seems like a lot of the stuff is like the actionable aspects of it are related to like personnel decisions, like who who would you play in certain circumstances, but maybe not as much actionable when it comes to strategy, where it's like in baseball you had the massive strategy shifts uh which completely change the game. Same with basketball, right? Where it's like uh shoot the threes and and dunk. So you know the mid-range game is now gone. Uh is there anything as it relates to football that you think that uh as we delve into more of these uh analytics and metrics that you think will end up profoundly changing the strategies? I know we've had stuff like going forward on fourth downs, a lot of the uh the things along the margins, I think, but uh the core strategies of the game, uh do you think that they are uh in danger of being uh shifting in a certain way? Or do you think it's just going to uh just kind of piecemeal make small changes as we go along?
SPEAKER_04Yeah, it's it's a great question, right? You know, bat in baseball, we've had this evolution towards the three true outcomes, as they call it, where strikeouts, walks, and home runs, and major league baseball trying to figure out how to make the game more exciting from that viewpoint of oh, we don't want it, we don't want it to just look like that every time. Uh in NBA, right? It's been the rise of the three-pointer and seeing, well, it's more optimal to lay up or dunk or take the three-point shot, right? And you know, what could go on in between uh with the mid-range might have died down a bit. Football, you know, yeah, we've had the rise of say going for it more on fourth downs. And we've also seen the as part of these advanced metrics of thinking about expected points added, like quantities of efficiency. Uh, it's led to an increase in passing, right? Seeing that passing was maybe more efficient. And then in the NFL level, seeing how the difference in how players were getting paid, right? Of seeing, oh, the value is in the passing game. You should be paying pass rushers more, right? And seeing that, oh, you should be the type of person, the former Heisman winner Derrick Henry. Are we going to see a running back like that? Or is that person going to become an edge rusher, right? Because of the incentives that exist from how this has evolved over time. Now, from the actual strategy component, I think what makes football incredible is just that back and forth between offensive innovation and defensive innovation, right? And you we're we're seeing that even play out in the NFL right now of seeing maybe, you know, yeah, we had that dominant run of the Kansas City Chiefs, but then we're seeing it go down a little bit, right? Changes in whatever coverage design that defenses are using that could be hurting their ability to go deep on these throws. Right. And so it's football is this amazing back and forth that goes between it, that I think is just gonna keep it in a fun state, right? It it's never going to have the the equilibrium, so to speak, of like, oh, we're we've hit this point and that's the optimal strategy. No, it has the tug of war that's gonna make it exciting.
SPEAKER_01Let's talk about the fan vote. Let's talk about how that works and how uh your analytics and how you await the fan vote during the course of the season.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, so with the Heisman Hobels uh platform this year, one of the big things with the fan vote is we want fans to vote the entire season, right? So week one games close and then fans can start voting, and we want fans to vote after week two and so on. But just from you know the mindset of how much should that vote count, right? When we think about you you voted after just one week of games, you know, how much do you really know about the players that are out there? You know, it's just a single game versus at the end of the season and leading up into that conference championship Saturday when the Heisman fan vote winner is going to be announced as the official first ballot in the Heisman race. You know, votes that are at the end of the year should be representative of a lot more information that's been observed. Right? They should count for more. And so what we ended up working on uh to do this is an approach that I look at effectively at how much information have we observed throughout the year where I compare uh based on the performances of teams over the courses of uh what I call the NIL era. So going back since 2021, and I have other research showing how uh college football games and modeling college football games has changed uh in this NIL time frame. But what we can see is like if I'm learning how good teams are from week to week, I could see how far away are we from the how my sense of their ratings at the end of the year, how good they are at the end of the year, how far away are we from those ratings in week one versus week two versus week three, and so on. And what we see is something that kind of aligns intuitively with how folks have thought about just like the college football season, at least how I how I think about it, is like the beginning of the year, it's kind of noisy, right? Teams are kind of getting situated, you know, maybe they're not showing everything in these non-conference games, right? The play call strategy. They might not be revealing everything as you know, as things are getting underway, they're figuring out their roster in the optimal sense. And so what we see is the first few weeks of the year are sort of low information setting. What I mean by that is historically during this time frame, there's even weeks two and three where weeks two and three appear further away from the ratings at the end of the year than what we just see entering week one based on what was observed in the past season, right? Because I'm doing this over this multi-year window to get a sense of like how close each week is to the end of the year. And it's that noisiness at the beginning of the year. But then once we get to like weeks four and five, then we just keep getting closer and closer to the end of the year. And it gives us what I did was then uh wait this distance to the end of the year, such that a vote in week one is worth one vote, and then a vote in week two is incremental based on how far away we are to that to that end of the year uh performance. And it it leads to a curve where we kind of increase in the first few weeks, but then we get more and more weight afterwards going from week four on. And it's different than just thinking of, oh, a vote after week one is worth one vote, a vote after week two is worth two votes and three and so on. We don't see something that's just linear like that. What I end up getting is from this curve, a vote at the end of the year, at the final week of the regular season, is about 18 times the amount of information as a vote after just week one. All right, so this was there's a lot of statistics that I tried to avoid talking about behind the scenes with this to get a sense of just we're using past five years of college football, seeing how much information do we learn from week to week. And that is establishing the weight that we give as fans vote. So their votes at the end of the year are worth a lot more than their votes at the beginning of the year. And what they should think of from that is they should be keep voting ever all you know, every day, all week, every week throughout the college football season, because those votes at the end play a lot more weight and they're gonna they could affect the the fan vote race at the end of the year. So fans should just keep voting the whole entire season because of this.
SPEAKER_01Well, that's that's how you get the people's Heisman, right? In a way. Um that's so well, Ron, I could talk about this forever, but uh we probably should wrap it up because uh we're either gonna bore a lot of people or I'm gonna run out of gas at some point. So uh thanks for obliging me on all these questions, some of them related directly with what we're doing, some of them not. But uh gosh, uh what an exciting uh thing for you to be involved with Heisman and expanding out the universe of players uh for the fans to see uh what their metrics are and really be able to study them to see who's who's the best players out there. So really appreciate you coming on the show and taking the time to explain it all in great detail.
SPEAKER_04Yeah, thanks for having me, Chris. It was a lot of fun, and uh the questions are great, and it's again, it's more I spend way too much time thinking about all these things anyway myself. So this was fun to fun to chat about.
SPEAKER_01Me too. I finally got someone to talk to about it. So thanks for that. Well, that'll do it for this week's episode of the Heisman Hopefuls Podcast. Special thanks to Oklahoma State for getting us Drew Mestimaker. Thanks to Duke for bringing in Nate Shepard, thanks to Ron Yorko over at Carnegie Mellon. Don't forget to go vote in the Heisman fan vote over at hopefuls.heisman.com. And also don't forget to like, subscribe, and we'll see you next week.
